Water serves as a mainstay component of geopolitical imperatives and should be understood as such. Access and control over waterways and bodies of water can provide strategic standing to a country.
In some cases, it can even enhance this standing in terms of military projection, trade, domestic stability, and leverage over other countries. For this reason, water has an underlying geopolitical importance. Access to and control over water can be a serious source of conflict among nations… conflict that has the potential to rise to the level of warfare.
Learn how we predict the outcome of changes that can significantly impact global reality. Water and Geopolitical Imperatives March 6, Access to and control over water is a strategic imperative that has been the impetus of conflict throughout history. This Week in Geopolitics. The Mighty Mississippi click to enlarge Waterways also provide cheaper means of shipping goods to port for export, making exports more competitive.
The Nile click to enlarge Rivers can also be sources of geopolitical power in terms of relations between states. Syria click to enlarge Lastly, the absence of water can indirectly lead to conflict. The Importance of Access Water serves as a mainstay component of geopolitical imperatives and should be understood as such.
Geopolitics Understanding geopolitics starts here.
Part 1 - Global Risks 2017
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The World in 2035: A Geopolitical Forecast
Shopbop Designer Fashion Brands. Withoutabox Submit to Film Festivals. Amazon Renewed Refurbished products with a warranty. Nonetheless, the method of strategic thinking behind the formulation of these predictions can often prove more interesting than the forecasts themselves. We must also be aware of the potential psychological biases in our thinking: Ideological preferences and personal convictions may also distort our predictions for the future.
To summarize the general trends highlighted in the outlook to , the forecasts tend to be pessimistic politically, but more optimistic in economic terms. The major findings of the predictions studied within the scope of this research project are presented along the lines of eight major aspects. States will remain the dominant players in the international arena, but the so-called Westphalian global system of theoretically nation-based states will continue to erode. As the Western model struggles, alternative governance forms may become more attractive such as the Chinese or Russian cases.
This erosion of the Westphalian system coincides with the further prominence of non-state actors, be that corporations, religious groups, international organizations, paramilitary forces, etc. Digitalization, innovations in IT technology and social media could have additional effects on politics and civil society too. For instance, new methods of communicating with politicians, of cross-border cooperation, and potential online referendums may come to the fore. The forecasts concerning the shifting geopolitical balance until are rather gloomy in their outlook.
They essentially argue that the world must adjust to life without a hegemonic power. A multipolar world order is likely to emerge, with greater room for maneuver for regional powers i. This could potentially lead to more competition and inter-state conflict. The international security landscape will continue to undergo a profound transformation.
In a more conflict-ridden global order, military and defense expenditures will probably rise. New security challenges are already emerging, such as energy security, the security-related aspects of climate change, migration, cyber security, or information warfare. These problems require fundamentally different approaches compared to a traditional, narrowly-focused military viewpoint. Most of the assessed publications believe the United States will remain a superpower, although its relative strength would somewhat diminish.
China is likely to continue its global ascendancy, and could prove a game-changer in many respects. Its rise is already indisputable thanks to its steady economic growth and greater international diplomatic clout.
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It therefore comes as no surprise that the US-China relationship will be the key global bilateral partnership over the medium term. The majority of analysts are pessimistic about the global role of Europe, predicting a further weakening of the bloc. Certain signs of these internal fissures are already apparent, including the eurozone crisis, Brexit, or differences over how to manage mass migration. It looks to become a rather fragmented alliance of values and interests, although economic interdependence could increase over the coming years.
The future role of Russia is highly contested in the literature and shall be discussed in greater detail in later sections of this article. Overall, most predictions see Russia as a regional player within Eurasia. South and East Asia are poised for substantial political and economic success.
Meanwhile, the Middle East and Sub-Saharan Africa will likely continue to be riddled with conflicts, coinciding with both demographic growth and increasing environmental stress. Latin America will presumably continue to suffer from its dependence on the fluctuating prices of key commodity products in global markets.
As for the outlook for global institutions and intergovernmental cooperation, there are echoes of the pessimism surrounding geopolitics in this regard as well. The forecasts contain much talk of the end of multilateralism, and the legitimacy crisis of the global institutions enshrined in the post-World War II period.
This could ultimately lead to a weakening of international institutions and multilateral practices in general. The heated debate over the future composition and role of the UN Security Council will continue, with calls to include other powers i. Japan, Germany, Brazil or India among the permanent global decision-makers with veto rights.
There is a clear consensus about global economic trends until , and the literature is much more optimistic in its economic outlook.
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Developing countries will be the motors of medium-term international economic growth. The Asia-Pacific region in particular will emerge as the focal point of the global economy. In terms of size, China, India, the United States, Indonesia and Brazil are expected to be the top five economies by the mid-century. In the meantime, transnational corporations will continue to grow in terms of size and lobbying power, potentially limiting the room for maneuver of certain states.
One of the ongoing debates in the forecasts is whether economic interdependence will deepen over the coming decades, or if protectionism and trade barriers are going to become more prominent.
Global Risks Report - Reports - World Economic Forum
Ideologies and ways of thinking about the world are incredibly hard to pin down in the present moment, let alone predict in advance. There is nonetheless a general view in the examined literature that the underlying values and practices of liberal multilateralism have suffered heavy blows in recent years.
The international liberalism of the post-Cold War era may be on the decline, but there are few coherent alternatives on the table. In terms of ideologies, we are not talking merely of a political shift. In fact, the global financial crisis has had philosophical repercussions, and the idea of laissez-faire capitalism has been somewhat discredited.